SAN FRANCISCO -- With same-sex marriage bans on the ballot in three high-profile states in November, presidential hopefuls John McCain and Barack Obama could find themselves stuck in a fight they'd rather avoid.California, Arizona and Florida will ask voters to approve constitutional amendments limiting marriage to a man and woman, and the high-priced election clash over the issue could help decide who becomes the nation's next president.Polls show Obama and McCain running neck and neck in much of the nation, which means that any issue that could bring out voters in a swing state such as Florida has to be taken seriously by both parties.But with the economy, the war in Iraq and health care drawing the most attention, same-sex marriage isn't a battleground either candidate would choose, said Jack Pitney, a political science professor at Claremont McKenna College."Both men need to appeal to moderates," he said. "And neither candidate seems comfortable talking about this."The question of same-sex marriage has been especially vexing to Obama, who needs to hang on to his progressive Democratic base, which sees same-sex marriage as a human rights issue, while not offending moderate blue-collar Democrats and independents, who might not be comfortable seeing two men or two women holding hands and saying, "I do."Obama has tried to tread a narrow road between the two positions. He says marriage should be limited to a man and a woman but opposes California's Proposition 8, which would put that limit in the state Constitution and overturn a state Supreme Court ruling earlier this year that legalized same-sex marriage.At a forum in Southern California last month, Obama explained his position to an audience made up mostly of evangelical Christians."I believe that marriage is the union between a man and a woman," he said to cheers. "I am not somebody who promotes same-sex marriage, but I do believe in civil unions. ... I think my faith is strong enough and my marriage is strong enough that I can afford those civil rights to others, even if I have a different perspective or a different view."His running mate, Delaware Sen. Joe Biden, takes the same position, opposing same-sex marriage and the state amendments that would ban it.McCain, who in 2004 opposed a GOP-backed constitutional amendment to ban same-sex unions nationwide, has long been viewed with suspicion by conservatives, so his outspoken opposition to same-sex marriage -- and support for the three November initiatives -- is a huge plus with that group.Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin, his choice as running mate, also opposes same-sex marriages and supported a 1998 amendment to ban them in her home state.But the conservative vote alone isn't enough to carry McCain to victory in November."McCain needs to attract centrists who might otherwise vote for Obama," Pitney said. "He doesn't want to seem a tool of the religious right."At the Southern California forum, the senator from Arizona reiterated that marriage should be "a union between man and woman, between one man and one woman," but he left the door open for other, less-controversial unions."That doesn't mean that people can't enter into legal agreements," he said. "That doesn't mean that they don't have the rights of all citizens. I'm not saying that. I am saying that we should preserve the unique status of marriage between one man and one woman."But political realities might not let the two candidates sidle carefully away from the same-sex marriage debate.While the issue isn't likely to change the presidential result in a strong Democratic state like California or sway McCain's home state of Arizona to Obama, the fight over same-sex marriage in a toss-up state like Florida could make a difference in the national contest.The marriage amendment can attract voters who otherwise might stay home on election day, said John Stemberger, head of Yes2Marriage, the group backing Florida's anti-same-sex marriage Amendment 2."Especially among social conservatives, there have been a lot of things about McCain that they don't like," he said. "But this will give a lot of conservatives a reason to come to the polls."Four years ago, similar same-sex marriage bans were on the ballot in 11 states -- and won in every one of them. Only in Oregon and Michigan did the measures receive less than 60 percent of the vote. Some political analysts suggested that the issue brought out enough conservative voters in Ohio to swing the state to GOP President Bush, giving him the state's 20 electoral votes and a national victory."Florida is one state where same-sex marriage might have a serious effect," Pitney said. "It's a close campaign there between McCain and Obama, and a point or two might make a difference."(E-mail John Wildermuth at jwildermuth(at)sfchronicle.com.)(Distributed by Scripps Howard News Service, www.scrippsnews.com.)
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