Credit reporting company TransUnion forecasts a slowdown in the growth of both credit card balances and delinquencies over the next year.
In the second quarter of 2024, the company says, there were more than 554 million active credit cards in the U.S.
TransUnion expects credit card balances will grow by 3.9% annually to around $1.09 trillion by the end of 2024. In 2025, balances are expected to grow by about 4.4% to $1.1 trillion. Those rates are much lower than in 2022, when balances grew by 18.5%; and in 2023, when they grew by 12.6%.
Rates of serious delinquency, which are balances that are more than 90 days overdue, are forecast to bump up to 2.64% at the end of 2024, and to 2.76% in 2025.
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TransUnion says balances are likely to creep up along with prices and with trends of overall consumer spending.
“We are forecasting credit card balance increases more in line with the single-digit growth observed in pre-pandemic years," said Michele Raneri, vice president and head of U.S. research and consulting at TransUnion, in a press release. "This slowing growth and the overall stabilization of the economy offers optimism that we may be nearing a tipping point when it comes to the increases in serious delinquency rates over the past several years."
Consumers may get some relief if the Federal Reserve continues to trim interest rates. The bank in November slashed its benchmark interest rate by a quarter of a percentage point to 4.5-4.75%— marking the second reduction this year, with rates expected to drop further in coming months.
A recent survey by H&R Block found that Gen X, those between age 44 and 59, carry the most credit card debt, followed by millennials and baby boomers.
The youngest generation, Gen Z, had the least amount of credit card debt.
