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How close are Republicans to retaining the House? Results show it's tight

The GOP will likely retain its majority, but its advantage in the House wouldn't be very big.

Jose Luis Magana/AP

Speaker of the House Mike Johnson.

By: Justin Boggs

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The Republican Party is on the cusp of retaining a majority in the House of Representatives, which would give the GOP full control of the federal government for the first time since 2017-18.

As of early Friday, Republicans are projected by Decision Desk HQ and Scripps News to win 216 seats, just two shy of the 218 needed for a majority. Democrats have won 204 seats, according to projections.

There are 15 races yet to be projected, with Democrats leading in 10, Republicans in three, and two with no clear leader.

Republican candidates currently lead in California's 41st and 45th House Districts and Alaska's at-large district. Assuming the GOP wins those seats and nothing more, the Republican Party would retain its House majority with 219 members.

There are still a number of mail-in ballots yet to be counted in the Alaska race between Nick Begich and Mary Peltola. While Begich has a 4 percentage point edge, mail-in ballots are expected to favor Peltola. Whether those ballots will be enough to give her the lead remains in question.

Decision Desk HQ gives the Republican Party a 92.9% chance of keeping the House.

Based on current results, Decision Desk HQ believes the Republican Party will have 222 seats in the next Congress, with Democrats holding 213.

The results of this year's House election largely mirror the 2022 race. As of today, the GOP has 220 House seats, Democrats are in control of 212 districts, and there are currently three vacancies.

Such a razor-thin margin has proven to be difficult for Republicans. Once taking the majority in 2023, members of Congress needed multiple rounds of voting before settling on installing Kevin McCarthy as House speaker. Within a year, several members of the party revolted against McCarthy for working with Democrats on a budget bill and forced him from the speakership. The party then voted for Mike Johnson as speaker.