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Could New York turn red while Florida shifts blue? Movers could upend electoral map

A new report suggests that seven blue states and three red states could become more competitive.

Mike Stewart/AP

Voters depart a polling place during primary voting on Tuesday, May 21, 2024, in Kennesaw, Georgia.

By: Justin Boggs

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As Americans move around the U.S., the implications could cause a shift in how states vote, according to a new report from Realtor.com.

The report shows that 22 states could trend toward Republicans while nine states could trend toward Democrats.

Realtor.com said it used online home shopping traffic data combined with 2020 presidential election county-level results to see how voters have shifted in the last four years, and just as importantly, where people are staying.

For instance, New York appeared to retain many Republican-leaning voters while losing Democrat-leaners to other states.

“If 60% of voters in a county were Democrats, we would estimate that 60% of online traffic from that county comes from blue shoppers,” Realtor.com said. “This approach simplifies the analysis by assuming that the political affiliations of online home shoppers mirror the voter distribution in their respective counties. However, we do not consider other factors such as income, age, or housing preferences that may also influence online home shopping behavior.”

The data found that four Democratic states and 12 Republican states could have more lopsided results. Seven blue states and three red states could become more competitive. Two swing states could become more Democratic while three battlegrounds could lean more toward Republicans.

Here is a breakdown of how states could change:

Four blue states—Connecticut, Delaware, District of Columbia, Maine—could trend bluer
Seven blue states—California, Colorado, Illinois, Minnesota, New York, Oregon and Washington—could trend redder
Three red states—Alaska, Florida and Ohio— could shift bluer
Twelve red states—Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Utah and Wyoming—could trend redder
Two swing states—Wisconsin and Nevada— could shift bluer
Three swing states—Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina—could trend redder
Two swing states–Michigan and Pennsylvania–have mixed population shifts that do not suggest a clear direction–red or blue–for the local electorate

“The influence of migration on election outcomes is a compelling topic of discussion, sparking interest in how shifting populations might reshape the political landscape, " said Danielle Hale, Relator.com chief economist. “As more people move across state lines, their voting habits could have the potential to sway election outcomes, especially in crucial swing states, where even small changes in the electorate can tip the scales. This dynamic raises important questions about how migration trends could influence the future of American politics this year and beyond.”

Changes in population also are only reflected in the Electoral College once a decade. The U.S. Census Bureau says many southern states, such as North Carolina, Georgia and Florida, have gained population since 2020, while northeast states such as New York and Pennsylvania, have been more prone to population loss.