The Biden administration is announcing more security aid for Ukraine during President Biden’s final days in office.
The $500 million presidential drawdown authority package will include missiles for air defense, air-to-ground munitions, support equipment for F-16s, small arms, and ammunition. More sanctions aimed at Russia’s economy are also expected this week, according to a U.S. official.
The latest tranche of aid comes as the U.S. works to surge support to Ukraine amid continued efforts to help Ukraine leverage its position for any potential negotiation.
The announcement is among Biden’s final actions in office to help Ukraine, as his foreign policy agenda has in part been defined by the United States’ support for Ukraine’s defense, the rallying of countries to the war-torn country’s side, and the unification of NATO.
Biden vowed to surge aid as part of Zelenskyy’s meeting at the White House last September, when the Ukrainian leader presented his "victory plan." The administration viewed the plan, which in part focused on military capabilities, as a leverage effort by Ukraine in anticipation of any possibility of negotiations this year.
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The administration has anticipated a potential for negotiations this year, according to a U.S. official, and believes its role is to help strengthen Ukraine’s position through security and economic support for the country and economic pressure on Russia, an approach it believes should be continued.
The outlook on Ukraine’s position appears to be more optimistic. There’s a belief that Ukraine is not given due credit for the strength of its battlefield position.
The administration believes Russia is in a difficult position. Ukraine has held on to Russian territory as fighting continues in the Kursk region. Russia has not made significant gains on the battlefield and is taking about 1,500 casualties a day, while the administration believes sanctions have been successful.
However, the administration maintains that negotiations and outcomes are Ukraine’s decision to make, though negotiations are increasingly discussed by each side. As Ukraine has defended its territory, it has long-sought NATO membership and, in its current war, it has called for security guarantees.
"I believe that we have a right to demand serious security guarantees from the world that is claiming leadership, and the countries that aim for the peace in the world. And we discussed this with now three American presidents – I spoke about it with President Trump, then President Biden, and now again, with President Trump,” Zelenskyy said this week.
In less than two weeks, the Trump administration will take the reins of the U.S. response.
Trump, readying for his second term in office, indicated he understood Russia’s feelings toward Ukraine’s involvement in NATO.
"Putin said you could never have NATO involved with Ukraine. Now they've said that. That's been like written in stone, and somewhere along the line, Biden said they should be able to join NATO. Well, then Russia has somebody right on their doorstep, and I could understand their feelings about that, but there were a lot of mistakes made in that negotiation,” the president-elect said during a press conference Tuesday.
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The comments follow Trump’s campaign pitch that claimed Russia would not have invaded on his watch, and that prompted questions over the United States' continued support for the country.
“On this one, I think for Trump to say he understands why Putin’s upset, that’s the wrong instinct,” said Kurt Volker, a distinguished fellow at the Center for European Policy Analysis, a previous special representative for Ukraine negotiations during the Trump administration, and U.S. ambassador to NATO in 2008 and 2009.
He noted that NATO first indicated potential Ukrainian membership in 2008, without action since. Volker said it’s Putin who has not shown interest in negotiating.
“I think the Trump team is beginning to see that their only obstacle to peace in Ukraine is Putin,” he said.
But Volker is optimistic, noting Putin’s position.
“He’s [Putin’s] trying to create this image of strength, this image of momentum when he’s really burning the last fuel he’s got,” he said, also noting that, “He’s just trying to project strength in order to see whether he can cut a deal with Trump. I hope the Trump administration is pretty savvy and sees what a weak position he’s in and just doesn’t give him an easy way out.”
Despite Trump’s recent comments, Volker believes the Ukrainians are cautiously optimistic about the incoming Trump administration, “because they think there’s going to be some decisiveness and therefore some clarity about what’s going on, and they can deal with that.”
While the Biden administration has faced outside criticism from some over the pace at which it’s made decisions to send additional capabilities, it’s also maintained that they have provided Ukraine with what they needed to be successful as needs evolved. The White House believes it’s been right more than it’s been wrong about what’s needed to make an impact on the battlefield, according to a U.S. official.
Since Russia’s invasion, the U.S. has provided more than $65 billion in security assistance, leveraged a litany of sanctions against Russia and other entities aiding the country, and sought to rally partners for Ukraine’s defense.
A few billion dollars in funding approved by Congress to help fund weapons for Ukraine is expected to be left for the incoming administration, according to defense officials, and while the administration believes stocks are currently healthy, it’s likely Ukraine could need replenishment of aid at some point this year, according to a U.S. official.
“What we are focused on right now, especially at the Pentagon, is providing Ukraine with the defense capabilities that we can provide in the time we have, including putting things on contract that will be delivered throughout 2025 and into 2026 in order to build that capability so that Ukraine can be in the strongest possible position if it comes to a negotiation,” a senior defense official told reporters.
